Be careful, be ready!

[alfstone]

I wish you were advising our government!!!!

Here here!!
Thanks Alfredo and I do hope you stay safe. You are one of my heros for sure.
Rock on!

Tim, Hook, I know, I know...

I've loved, respected, admired UK and USA since I was a boy, but in this occasion I am feeling an enormous disappointment. I just can't understand, can't believe what I keep on reading since the beginning.
Generally speaking we here always looked at your Nations as positive models, but this time...and the same I cannot understand the Swedish approach, with terrible stories from Italian doctors who work there...look, I was talking with my friend Roberto (Robtob here on SC). His daughter studies in an UK University. At the beginning of this nightmare, both parents and the girl decided she would better stay there, trusting the famous British NHS more than the Italian SSN, but just after the famous "Herd immunity" concept by Johnson, they all immediately changed their mind, and she returned home as quickly as possible.

I am with you.

Alfredo

[alfstone]

My monthly update. As you know, we in Italy are a couple of weeks "before" the rest of the world.

A very positive update.

Covid19 is still here, and is slowly spreading (much less than previous months, anyway), but the GREAT news is that for some unclear reason it's NO MORE ABLE to make serious damage. Nobody needs first aid anymore, no hospitalization needed, no ICU. Nothing. The victims are mainly those who met Covid in March and April, (so after months of ICU, or very old patients from care houses) when it was a real killer. Even these old patients who are infected TODAY, usually have not serious problems. In spite of Imperial College previews (150000 ICU needed in Italy at the beginning of June, due to the end of lockdown), today the ICU beds occupied are 200.

The reason is not clear, maybe the temperature, maybe a "gentlemen agreement" between virus and man: "I don't kill you anymore (because this way I too will die), but you will allow me to spread easily" (technically its called Omoplasy), maybe some change in virus structure, but anyway great news.

EVEN MORE great news, since the situation is the same non only in Italy, but in most Nations who were first hit: China and Far East are "out". Same situation of Italy you will find in Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany. The shape of the bell is more or less the same in all these Nations, regardless of therapies, Health Services, political and social approach to the pandemic.

UK, in my opinion, will be the same in a more couple of weeks: good news from Scotland, and England too seems to have a decreasing number of victims.

USA: same "bell", with NYC beginning to get better. More cases in the Southern States, but higher temperatures help a lot: positive cases  in a lower % become severe clinically (see what's happening in India, Pakistan and Africa: many positives, but proportionally few victims)

Southern America, going to cold temperature, is actually in the most severe situation, but if the preview is correct, it should begin to get better in 30-45 days.

In other words, it seems everywhere the same bell shape, but like a domino.

Social distancing for sure has been fundamental to flatten the curve, but probably now we can be more relaxed. Summer should be safe.

The most difficult preview. What will happen next Autumn/Winter? Will there be the famous "second wave" as in 1918 Spanish flu? Of course no one can seriously tell.  But I think positive, here's the reason why: Spanish flu= H1N1 virus, while Covid-19= Coronavirus. Two very different kinds of viruses.
Now, Coronaviruses and man have met 5 other times before today. SARS (...who finished in June and never returned, think about it...); MERS (endemic with an extremely low number of cases in the world) and thre more Coronaviruses, that cause mild sniffles. No one of these had a "second wave" ever, so if Covid would come back with next cold it would act in a completely different way than its "cousins"...

Finger crossing...

Alfredo

[Greeny (No longer active)]

Thanks for the update, Alfredo. Feels optimistic. I think we can all hope for a return to something approaching 'normal'.

[Flash Harry]

That's very interesting Alfredo. Promising news. Thank you.

[kenny mac]

Thanks Alfredo.
Youve been a hero throughout this,as have all key workers in the world.

[Redler]

Thanks for the update, Alfredo. I hope the positive news continues and the second wave won't come...

[Ferryman_1957]

Thanks Alfredo, and bravo for all your work during this crisis.

This is overall good news, fingers crossed also!

[thetworegs]

Thanks for the update Alfredo it sounds promising fingers crossed

[Pete C]

Thanks for your update Alfredo - very interesting and sounds very hopeful

I've been following this website during the pandemic: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

You can see figures for all countries but you can also look at graphs for individual countries.

Looking at Sweden where there has been no full lockdown like in UK, Italy, Spain, etc. the daily new infections don't appear to have peaked yet, but the daily death rate does appear to be declining. To my non-expert mind this would appear to support the belief that the effect of the virus is diminishing. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this Alfredo.

Pete

[alfstone]

Thanks for your update Alfredo - very interesting and sounds very hopeful

I've been following this website during the pandemic: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

You can see figures for all countries but you can also look at graphs for individual countries.

Looking at Sweden where there has been no full lockdown like in UK, Italy, Spain, etc. the daily new infections don't appear to have peaked yet, but the daily death rate does appear to be declining. To my non-expert mind this would appear to support the belief that the effect of the virus is diminishing. It would be interesting to hear your thoughts on this Alfredo.

Pete

Thanks you all.

Pete, here in Italy there is actually a very "hard" debate between doctors and scientists: two weeks ago, the Director of one of the main ICU units in Milan, exactly as in the novel (the king is naked), told clear on TV: "Clinically, pandemic is OVER!". I am in touch everyday with a net of colleagues who work allover the Country, and their voice is the same everywhere: Positive CASES, yes, but 99% WITHOUT symptoms at all. Hence the COVID-ICU units empting and closing.

Now, in front of this REAL situation, call it TRUTH (already known to us all doctors), there's an OPPORTUNITY problem: is it right to tell this truth on TV? It's obvious that an average TV audience, listening to this, can think: "Well, it's over. From this moment on, everything as before!" And this is a risk that no Country can afford yet, since this virus in few months showed us that it can make EVERYTHING as bad as possible, and then, suddenly and without a known reason, become innocent almost like a little lamb: logic suggests  that probably it should make no more damages, but who can say it FOR SURE?

I know well that web site: if you look at the deaths numbers, you may notice that luckily it's going down EVERYWHERE (except Brazil), and consider that (extremely important!!!) these deaths are form cases dating from March and April: in Italy no new victims from May and June-positive cases.

So, yes. Luckily something HAS changed, probably in the virus structure, or in it virulence, someone talks about cross-immunity with other Coronaviruses already in touch with us since centuries...I think we'll understand better what's happening in the next months, but the great thing is that it's happening anyway.

Sweden has chosen a different approach from other Countries: to let the virus go around, hoping in a herd immunity and less damage to Swedish economy. Numbers say  it's been a twice wrong decision: Swedish deaths/1m population are many more than Norway, Finland and Denmark, and economy too had serious damages. The bell shape in Sweden is consequentially larger respect other Nations , due to their government decisions, but things are beginning to get better there too.

Alfredo