Be careful, be ready!

[TPB]

They have everything pretty much shut down I Mississippi no schools shelter in place, me I live in the country and work out of the house so been busy with the planting finishing the third garden now got a 1/4acre of sweet corn one with peas and tomatoes and the big garden has watermelon squash peppers and three kinds of beans. I used to sell eggs in New Orleans once a week and was wondering what to do with all the egg6 to 7dozen a week. But they are rationing them in the store now so all the neighbors and friends are well stocked now. Hope you all stay safe
Tim

[Mike_S]

Update from Ireland... numbers still relatively small compared to some other countries, but worryingly we had 10 deaths yesterday. So for a population of 4.5 million that number can be deceiving as we are still supposedly at the early stages of this with the storm yet to hit.

At the same time we are - like every country- praying our government has the tactics right. So ourselves and Britain looking like we are starting to enter the scary phase.

Thoughts still very much with Alfredo who is on the frontline in Italy, as well as anyone else who has to put themselves in harms way, like supermarket employees and other vital public facing roles.

Going to see my Mum at the weekend to try to convince her yet again to allow me to get her groceries. She does kind of get the seriousness of it all now, but will always be behind the curve, it's just the way she is. But the sooner she understands and let's me get her shopping the sooner I can relax... a bit.

Hoping all songcrafters are still ok

Mike

[alfstone]

Update at April 7 - almost one month since my first alarm.

Just some observations:

- Social distancing WORKS. The trend here is beginning to get down after a terrible month, and this is true both for the most hit regions (Lombardy, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto) and also for those regions (mine included) where the pandemia seems not to grow, just slowly.

- the dead number is still very high. This has to do with the worst cases, that began 2 or 3 weeks ago. In other words, the hope is that since the new positives are going down TODAY, consequentially the death number will begin to decrease after 7-10-15 days.

- the bad news: for those who must go to ICU and ventilation, unfortunately, according to Intensive Care specialists, this is not the usual pneumonia, it is something completely new and severe. It has to do not only with lungs but also with hemostasis problems and severe flammatory situations, and this explains the incredibly high death rate from the ICU units.

- Rest houses are often in a terrible situation, with many, many dead.

- The sensation is that for 1 positive swarb, there are 5-10 times more (unknown, with few or no symptoms at all) positive subjects

Alfredo

[Hook]

Thank you Alfredo, beside Dr. Fauci (working with and being somewhat ignored by Trump here in the USA) whom I think is very honest & knowledgeable, I value your updates. I can't imagine what you have been & currently going through but you are one of the hero's in all of this. Thank you sir!
Rock on!

[alfstone]

Dear friends,

exactly two months since my first alert here. Since I'm sure everyone of you has plenty of information about the situation, I've decided not keeping on further with other info. So I think one post once in a month is enough to keep you update by my point of view.

As you know, here in Italy we live 2-3 weeks "before". Since the beginning, for the first time I can give you a message of hope.

The situation: still a big number of new positive cases in Lombardy, Piedmont, a little better in Emilia-Romagna and Veneto.

Luckily, the rest of Italy, included Sicily where I live, has been hit only marginally. Victims (mainly) only in care houses, with positive cases only in people coming from those Northern Regions. Why? No answer.

The very, very important positive news: even if Covid-19 is still here and keeps spreading, for some unknown reason, the consequent disease, and the damages it makes, simply are not the same. News from my colleagues in Northern Italy are all the same. In March and April dozens and dozens of patients everyday to the first aid stations, many of the in extremely serious situations that needed ICU and ventilation. Most of them didn't survive.

Actually, very few go to the first aid, and of these ones 80% of them can return to their homes, 20% go to "normal" hospital Covid departments, but NONE OF THEM requires ICU and /or ventilation. No pneumonia. Why? No answer.

Anyway this is not a message that can be spread to the media, because many could think: "Well, perfect, so everything's over, let's return to our everyday's life as before!" And of course this is not possible yet, since we are sailing "by sight", moment after moment.

There are various theories for this:

- social distancing works. Likely, but I don't think it is the main reason. Italian social distancing has been respected by people, but of course so different by the Chinese-style social distancing.

- theres' been a revolution by many GPs (family doctors), who went against the NHS guidelines (= paracetamol, wait and see, if serious situations send to hospital, i.e. MAKE NOTHING) who have begun to treat SINCE THE BEGINNING patients at home with HCQ, LMWH and antibiotics, with great results. Likely this too, but again I don't think it is the main reason.

- as in other pandemics, there could be molecular variations of the virus that make it less lethal, and this way easier for itself to spread, living as a parasite that doesn't kill its host. Likely, but so early? No answer.

The reality is simply that still we don't know almost anything about this Covid-19.

My situation: in more than 30 years as a doctor, I had never felt so bad: only doubts and uncertainty, no clear idea about what to do, working 90%of time by phone is a real nightmare. Many GPs are in burn-out, but 50 of them are dead, so we have just to keep on as we can.

So, I wish ALL SC members to experiment very soon in their Countries too the positive sensations (and DATA!) we are seeing here.

"Phase 2"has begun here last Monday, so we now have to wait and see what will happen in the next couple of weeks. Finger crossed...

I still cannot understand why some Nations are having such big problems, even bigger than here, where we have been so unlucky to be the first ones to be hit, and only in a part of the Country. Looking at what was happening here, there was enough time to setup a stronger line of defense, something like was made here for the rest of the Country, but even in other nations such as Greece, Portugal, New Zealand with excellent results...

All the best to you all, and take care!

Alfredo

[Farrell Jackson]

Thanks for the positive update Alfredo! I'm glad you're seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and that you are safe.

Farrell

[kenny mac]

Thanks Alfredo.
The social distance attitude I think has played  a big part in Scotland.
Most people have abided by it and the government here is approaching coming out of it with caution.
That said the death toll is now 1.847 but in my opinion would have been alot worse if we hadn't took our lockdown action seriously.

[thetworegs]

Thanks for the update Alfredo I hope you keep safe

[Greeny (No longer active)]

Best wishes and thanks, Alfredo. Sounds like cautious optimism in Italy.

Sadly not here in England, as we have a government who would rather have a death toll of 100,000 than damage the economy further. It's all been mishandled in the worst way, with daily lies and twisting the 'science' to justify every bad decision taken. And now they want us back at work and have colluded  with the media to imply that lockdown is over (it certainly was where I live - everyone in bank holiday mode). Plus irresponsible VE Day parties without social distancing.

Expect a big spike of deaths in 2-3 weeks here.

I wish you were advising our government!!!!

[Hook]

I wish you were advising our government!!!!

Here here!!
Thanks Alfredo and I do hope you stay safe. You are one of my heros for sure.
Rock on!